叶尔羌河平原绿洲土地生态安全预警演变与时空格局分析

[目的]探索叶尔羌河平原绿洲土地生态安全预警问题及其时空格局变化,旨在为叶尔羌河平原绿洲土地生态安全及可持续利用提供科学的参考依据。[方法]文章运用PSR模型构建预警指标体系,采用熵值法测算各指标权重,对2000—2016年叶尔羌河平原绿洲土地生态安全警情格局进行综合分析,并利用GIS技术分析其2000年、2005年、2010年和2016年土地生态安全空间格局变化,最后运用障碍度模型探索其障碍因子。[结果](1)2000—2016年叶尔羌河平原绿洲土地生态安全综合预警指数总体呈上升态势,生态预警状态由"较不安全"转为"临界安全",警度亦由"重警"变为"中警"。(2)从空间格局来看,空间上各县域土地生态安全水平差异明显,研究初期西部地区土地生态安全状态优于东部地区, 2016年呈现出中部高、东北—西南部低的态势。(3)近17年叶尔羌河平原绿洲各县域土地生态环境状况有所改善,安全状态经历了"极不安全—临界安全—较安全"的发展历程。(4)影响土地生态安全的主要障碍因子包括单位面积耕地农药负荷、人口密度、单位面积耕地化肥负荷、土地垦殖率、人口自然增长率和单位面积耕地地膜负荷等。[结论]研究期间叶尔羌河平原绿洲土地生态安全得到明显的提升与改善,并在良好的方向发展。     

我国城市化与城乡收入差距非线性动态关系实证研究

探讨城市化对城乡收入差距的影响效应，对于我国经济高质量发展具有重要意义。本文基于1978—2015年的相关数据，采用平滑转换回归（STR）模型研究了我国城市化对城乡收入差距的非线性影响效应。研究发现，城市化与城乡收入差距两个变量之间的动态关系适合使用非线性的LSTR2模型来刻画，并且我国城市化缩小了城乡收入差距。考虑了经济增长和产业结构升级因素后，城市化还是缩小了城乡收入差距，经济增长因素也能够缩小城乡收入差距，但是产业结构升级因素却拉大了城乡收入差距。     

河南省产业集聚区产业创新过程中存在的问题与对策研究

本文采用实地调查、访谈法和网络调查法相结合的方法，对河南省产业集聚区产业创新状况进行了研究。研究发现河南省产业集聚区产业创新主体——地方政府、企业、高校/科研院所均存在影响产业创新的因素。为解决创新过程中存在的问题，本文在将产业创新划分为共性创新和个性创新两种类型的基础上，针对不同类型的产业创新提出了明确的、具有可操作性的解决策略，为助推河南省工业经济的发展提供了有效的智力支持。     

The effects of COVID-19 containment measures on the Asia-Pacific region

As the COVID-19 pandemic spread across the world, governments introduced significant containment measures to control the spread of the virus. In this paper, we leverage inputs from IMF desk economists to construct a novel narrative index of containment measures for 11 countries in the Asia-Pacific region. A key innovation in our index is that it distinguishes between economic sectors (services, industry, retail), thus providing a more granular view of restrictions related to economic activity. Using this index, along with other high-frequency data, we find that containment measures have been successful in reducing the spread of the virus (though with some heterogeneity) but have also been associated with large short-term economic costs. Furthermore, exploiting the granularity of our index, we find that differences in strategies across countries regarding the closing of the industrial sector have mattered: imposing less severe restrictions on industry has been associated with lower economic costs without leading to worse health outcomes, possibly reflecting the less contact intensive nature of industrial activity.     

Immigrants’ net direct fiscal contribution: How does it change over their lifetime?

Life-cycle direct public fiscal contributions and transfers are studied using longitudinal income tax data from 1982 to 2016 and administrative files for immigrants landed in Canada from 1980 to 2016. Relative to a comparison group comprising the Canadian-born and immigrants landed before 1980, immigrants since 1980 have a lower average net direct fiscal contribution (NDFC) during their working years due to their lower taxes and social security contributions but a higher average NDFC after 65 years of age because of reduced public pension eligibility and entitlement. Immigrants who landed at younger than 19 years old have much higher direct fiscal contributions than other age-at-arrival groups and reach their peak of contributions around 10 years earlier in life than other age-at-arrival groups. Immigrants whose age at arrival is above 65 have a less negative average NDFC than other age-at-arrival groups over the above-65 life cycle. These life-cycle age𠄁at-arrival trajectories are stable for immigrants in different landing cohorts. We apply the life-cycle estimates to project the present discounted value of lifetime NDFCs for immigrants who landed in 2016. For each landing age group, refugees and family class immigrants have negative or zero average present values of life-cycle NDFCs, much below that of economic immigrants.     

Indirect taxation with shadow cost of public funds in mixed oligopoly

We adopt a mixed oligopoly model, where a state-owned welfare-maximizing public firm competes with a profit-maximizing private firm, to compare the welfare effects of the specific and ad valorem tax in the presence of the shadow cost of public funds. Following the assumption of most previous literature that total output is constant under specific and ad valorem taxation, we find that, when the shadow cost of public funds exists, the tax policy must be adjusted according to the privatization level of the public firm; if the privatization level is low (medium, high), the government needs to adopt ad valorem (specific, ad valorem) tax. Moreover, the private firm will earn a higher (lower) profit under ad valorem tax than under specific tax, if the public firm is not fully privatized and the shadow cost of public funds is high (low).     

将“合伙人制”融入“合作制”的一项尝试——基于MGL合作社的案例解读与探讨

当前,合作社异化已成为阻碍合作社进一步发展的痛点,其中"合作制"下社员剩余索取权和控制权的丧失是矛盾核心,因而探求其改进方式对合作社长远发展、实现乡村振兴有重要意义。本文基于效率与公平衡量维度,通过对MGL合作社这一典型案例进行剖析发现,有效的合作社在治理结构和利益分配上具备"合伙人制"特征,并且基本契合不完全契约理论有关能够有效解决契约双方信息不对称以及剩余索取权、控制权被少数社员占有的论述。对此,应充分重视合伙人制在合作社发展中的内在有效性,弱化其是否具有规范的外在形式。     

信贷资产证券化缓解银行风险承担水平了吗？——来自中国银行业的经验证据

本文选取中国2011~2018年42家商业银行年度平衡面板数据,通过GMM动态面板回归和DID双重差分模型实证分析信贷资产证券化对银行风险承担的短期影响机制和政策变量的中长期影响效应。研究发现:信贷资产证券化初始阶段对不良贷款率具有显著的正向提升作用,信贷风险未得到真正剥离或转移,信贷资产证券化发行银行可通过提升自身杠杆率水平、更多持有高风险的不良资产、扩大信贷规模等方式导致不良贷款率上升,银行经营呈现出一定的道德风险;中长期来看,信贷资产证券化由审批制向注册制转变、不良资产证券化等政策变量对缓解和降低银行不良贷款率具有显著的促进效应。     

责任保险道德风险防范问题研究

本文主要研究责任保险的道德风险防范问题。首先,介绍责任保险的道德风险是如何产生的,以及该类风险的特点;其次,对责任保险中道德风险的常见表现进行分析;第三,指出主要责任保险险种的道德风险防范中所存在的问题;在上述分析的基础上,最后提出了包括强调损失补偿原则、完善侵权方面相关法律政策、甄别第三方索赔者的类型、提高法庭判决的公平性、提高业务员综合素质以抑制承保风险、合理设计责任保险合同条款等有关建议。